Friday, 29 May 2015

African Elephant decline

This model illustrates issues that have led to the African Elephant becoming a threatened species. For more information see EAI International and CITES. An example of an organization working actively to improve the situation is David Shepherd Wildlife.

Click image for full size


Southbeach Modeller contains a report engine. It can generate useful output from any visual model. The user provides a script and the tool keeps the report in line with the visual model. The script is very flexible and can generate all kinds of output which can be re-used across any model. Thus, a consultant working with the tool can develop report templates and apply them to any model they develop with their clients. The output from this model, from a simple script, is given below.

At the end of the page we also list the report script itself, so that you can see the type of language used. 
REPORT ON ELEPHANT EXTINCTION

There is a risk of Elephant extinction

We need to focus on:
1. Elephant decline
2. Changes in land usage
3. Demand for ivory

The following factors are contributing to the situation (in no particular order):

- Elephant poaching
- Orphaned elephants
- Demand for bush meat
- Some countries say they have too many elephants
- Culling activities
- Political unrest
- Illegal trade in ivory
- Habitat loss
- Elephant decline
- Conflict between people and elephants
- Insufficient game rangers
- Fragmented habitats
- Human population expansion
- Changes in land usage
- Demand for ivory
- Countries allowing hunting of elephants for sport
- Translocation programs and birth control

Good work is happening, but some of it is insufficient:

- Public denouncement of wildlife trade
- Orphan rescue centres
- Protected areas and wildlife corridors
- Funding of anti-poaching units
- Customs controls
- Government wildlife services
- International fund raising for wildlife projects

What we know is:

- China is the biggest consumer of ivory, elephant skins and meat
- Present day ~500000
- 1930's 3 to 5 million
- 1980 ~1.3 million
- 1990 ~600000
- African elephant is listed by CITES as a threatened species

Some additional actions are being taken, but are they sufficient?

A1. Public denouncement of wildlife trade
A2. Orphan rescue centres
A3. Customs controls
A4. International fund raising for wildlife projects

To generate ideas for reducing the decline, consider these questions:

Q1. How can we reduce or prevent Demand for bush meat from producing Elephant poaching?
Q2. How can we reduce or prevent Some countries say they have too many elephants from producing Culling activities?
Q3. How can we reduce or prevent Some countries say they have too many elephants from producing Translocation programs and birth control?
Q4. How can we reduce or prevent Elephant poaching from producing Orphaned elephants?
Q5. How can we reduce or prevent Elephant poaching from producing Elephant decline?
Q6. How can we reduce or prevent Illegal trade in ivory from producing Elephant poaching?
Q7. How can we reduce or prevent Habitat loss from producing Elephant decline?
Q8. How can we reduce or prevent Conflict between people and elephants from producing Elephant decline?
Q9. How can we reduce or prevent Culling activities from producing Elephant decline?
Q10. How can we reduce or prevent Translocation programs and birth control from producing Elephant decline?
Q11. How can we reduce or prevent Elephant decline from producing Elephant extinction?
Q12. How can we reduce or prevent Insufficient game rangers from producing Elephant poaching?
Q13. How can we reduce or prevent Political unrest from producing Insufficient game rangers?
Q14. How can we reduce or prevent Fragmented habitats from producing Elephant decline?
Q15. How can we reduce or prevent Changes in land usage from producing Conflict between people and elephants?
Q16. How can we reduce or prevent Human population expansion from producing Changes in land usage?
Q17. How can we reduce or prevent Changes in land usage from producing Fragmented habitats?
Q18. How can we reduce or prevent Conflict between people and elephants from producing Orphaned elephants?
Q19. How can we reduce or prevent Orphaned elephants from producing Elephant decline?
Q20. How can we reduce or prevent Demand for ivory from producing Illegal trade in ivory?
Q21. How can we reduce or prevent Conflict between people and elephants from producing Some countries say they have too many elephants?
Q22. How can we reduce or prevent Human population expansion from producing Some countries say they have too many elephants?
Q23. Put measures in place to deal with Elephant poaching.
Q24. Put measures in place to deal with Culling activities.
Q25. Put measures in place to deal with Translocation programs and birth control.
Q26. Put measures in place to deal with Orphaned elephants.
Q27. Put measures in place to deal with Elephant decline.
Q28. Put measures in place to deal with Elephant extinction.
Q29. Put measures in place to deal with Insufficient game rangers.
Q30. Put measures in place to deal with Conflict between people and elephants.
Q31. Put measures in place to deal with Changes in land usage.
Q32. Put measures in place to deal with Fragmented habitats.
Q33. Put measures in place to deal with Illegal trade in ivory.
Q34. Put measures in place to deal with Some countries say they have too many elephants.
Q35. Isolate the part of Demand for bush meat that is producing Elephant poaching and remove it.
Q36. Isolate the part of Some countries say they have too many elephants that is producing Culling activities and remove it.
Q37. Isolate the part of Some countries say they have too many elephants that is producing Translocation programs and birth control and remove it.
Q38. Isolate the part of Elephant poaching that is producing Orphaned elephants and remove it.
Q39. Isolate the part of Elephant poaching that is producing Elephant decline and remove it.
Q40. Isolate the part of Illegal trade in ivory that is producing Elephant poaching and remove it.
Q41. Isolate the part of Habitat loss that is producing Elephant decline and remove it.
Q42. Isolate the part of Conflict between people and elephants that is producing Elephant decline and remove it.
Q43. Isolate the part of Culling activities that is producing Elephant decline and remove it.
Q44. Isolate the part of Translocation programs and birth control that is producing Elephant decline and remove it.
Q45. Isolate the part of Elephant decline that is producing Elephant extinction and remove it.
Q46. Isolate the part of Insufficient game rangers that is producing Elephant poaching and remove it.
Q47. Isolate the part of Political unrest that is producing Insufficient game rangers and remove it.
Q48. Isolate the part of Fragmented habitats that is producing Elephant decline and remove it.
Q49. Isolate the part of Changes in land usage that is producing Conflict between people and elephants and remove it.
Q50. Isolate the part of Human population expansion that is producing Changes in land usage and remove it.
Q51. Isolate the part of Changes in land usage that is producing Fragmented habitats and remove it.
Q52. Isolate the part of Conflict between people and elephants that is producing Orphaned elephants and remove it.
Q53. Isolate the part of Orphaned elephants that is producing Elephant decline and remove it.
Q54. Isolate the part of Demand for ivory that is producing Illegal trade in ivory and remove it.
Q55. Isolate the part of Conflict between people and elephants that is producing Some countries say they have too many elephants and remove it.
Q56. Isolate the part of Human population expansion that is producing Some countries say they have too many elephants and remove it.
Q57. Find a way to reduce or prevent Countries allowing hunting of elephants for sport from decreasing Government wildlife services
Q58. Find ways to increase the effectiveness of Public denouncement of wildlife trade in decreasing Illegal trade in ivory
Q59. Find ways to increase the effectiveness of Funding of anti-poaching units in decreasing Elephant poaching
Q60. Find ways to increase the effectiveness of International fund raising for wildlife projects in decreasing Habitat loss
Q61. Find ways to increase the effectiveness of Protected areas and wildlife corridors in decreasing Fragmented habitats
Q62. Find ways to increase the effectiveness of Orphan rescue centres in decreasing Orphaned elephants
Q63. Find ways to increase the effectiveness of Customs controls in decreasing Illegal trade in ivory
Q64. Find ways to increase the effectiveness of Government wildlife services in decreasing Elephant poaching

List of all effects in the situation:

1. Demand for bush meat produces Elephant poaching
2. Some countries say they have too many elephants produces Culling activities
3. Some countries say they have too many elephants produces Translocation programs and birth control
4. Elephant poaching produces Orphaned elephants
5. Public denouncement of wildlife trade counteracts Illegal trade in ivory
6. Funding of anti-poaching units counteracts Elephant poaching
7. Elephant poaching produces Elephant decline
8. International fund raising for wildlife projects counteracts Habitat loss
9. Illegal trade in ivory produces Elephant poaching
10. Habitat loss produces Elephant decline
11. Conflict between people and elephants produces Elephant decline
12. Culling activities produces Elephant decline
13. Translocation programs and birth control produces Elephant decline
14. Elephant decline produces Elephant extinction
15. Insufficient game rangers produces Elephant poaching
16. Political unrest produces Insufficient game rangers
17. Protected areas and wildlife corridors counteracts Fragmented habitats
18. Fragmented habitats produces Elephant decline
19. International fund raising for wildlife projects produces Protected areas and wildlife corridors
20. Changes in land usage produces Conflict between people and elephants
21. Human population expansion produces Changes in land usage
22. Changes in land usage produces Fragmented habitats
23. International fund raising for wildlife projects produces Funding of anti-poaching units
24. International fund raising for wildlife projects produces Orphan rescue centres
25. Orphan rescue centres counteracts Orphaned elephants
26. Customs controls counteracts Illegal trade in ivory
27. Conflict between people and elephants produces Orphaned elephants
28. Orphaned elephants produces Elephant decline
29. Demand for ivory produces Illegal trade in ivory
30. Government wildlife services counteracts Elephant poaching
31. Countries allowing hunting of elephants for sport counteracts Government wildlife services
32. Government wildlife services produces Customs controls
33. Conflict between people and elephants produces Some countries say they have too many elephants
34. Human population expansion produces Some countries say they have too many elephants
35. 1930's 3 to 5 million becomes 1980 ~1.3 million
36. 1980 ~1.3 million becomes 1990 ~600000
37. 1990 ~600000 becomes Present day ~500000

APPENDIX

The Southbeach Modeller script which generated the report output above, directly from the visual model, was:

There is a risk of {risk}

We need to focus on:
[focus :  numeric]

The following factors are contributing to the situation (in no particular order):

[harmful+!risk : dashed]

Good work is happening, but some of it is insufficient:

[useful : dashed]

What we know is:

[knowledge : dashed]

Some additional actions are being taken, but are they sufficient?

[action :actions]

To generate ideas for reducing the decline, consider these questions:

[increases(*,harmful) "How can we reduce or prevent {source} from producing {destination}?" : questions]
[increases(*,harmful) "Put measures in place to deal with {destination}.": cont]
[increases(*,harmful) "Isolate the part of {source} that is producing {destination} and remove it.": cont]
[increases(useful,harmful) "How else could {source} be accomplished that would not result in {destination}?": cont]
[increases(useful,harmful) "What else could give the benefits of {source} that would not result in {destination}?": cont]
[decreases(, useful) "Find a way to reduce or prevent {from} from decreasing {to}": cont]
[decreases(, harmful) "Find ways to increase the effectiveness of {from} in decreasing {to}" : cont]

List of all effects in the situation:

[ *(*,) : allzero, numeric]